Black Friday shopping has surpassed records, says Reuters. With growth comes the question of what tomorrow will bring. According to Retail TouchPoints, “US online sales for Cyber Week grew to $79.6 billion, up 5% YoY, according to data from Salesforce. Globally, online sales increased 7% YoY, to $333.6 billion.”

While Cyber Monday might feel like a stretch to compare against brick-and-mortar retail, more stores are amping up buy-online, pick-up in-store (BOPIS) to compete. The coming year isn’t predictable, but there are indicators that the market will shift in favor of those who choose to adapt. The retail industry outlook for 2026 shows opportunities for retailers willing to embrace the power of artificial intelligence (AI) automation. 

According to Forrester, the retailers who prioritize margin in 2026 over generalized growth will unlock revenue gains. Retailers also face greater economic uncertainty as the market shifts, making data-driven insights and AI-powered decision-making essential to aligning with industry demand.

Colliers reports that “store-based retail still accounted for 76% of total US retail sales in 2025, highlighting that enterprise brick-and-mortar operations remain central. Consumer behavior shifts toward value and premium segments will reshape assortment and merchandising strategies. Meanwhile, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) projects mid-tier apparel and specialty retailers will face continued compression while value and premium operators expand margin.”

The data underscores how technology adoption drives measurable results across retail operations. Retailers who leverage data-driven intelligence thrive by building resilient, adaptive strategies. Foot-traffic trends, contraction of underperforming locations and pressure on pricing strategies reinforce the need for precise, actionable planning. But that’s far from the full story of what’s going to happen in the coming year. Let’s dig in. 

The foundation of successful retail transformation

Modern AI demand planning transforms how retailers approach inventory, merchandising and customer engagement. The 2026 retail industry outlook shows leading retailers move beyond reactive planning to proactive, intelligence-driven operations. Digital transformation now encompasses every aspect of retail operations. AI enables retailers to respond to market changes with unprecedented speed and accuracy across supply chain resilience and personalization strategies.

Retailers must also consider sustainability initiatives. Most industry publications emphasize that grocery chains aligning operations with environmental responsibility will gain loyalty among conscious consumers while lowering waste. AI enables tracking of carbon footprint in replenishment, reducing overstock while supporting sustainable goals.

Building retail planning solutions

Effective retail planning solutions integrate multiple data sources to create unified operational strategies. Successful retailers connect financial planning, inventory management and customer experience through AI-powered platforms. Multi-channel retail experiences require sophisticated coordination across all touchpoints. Retailers must ensure that in-store promotions align with inventory, that customer loyalty programs reflect actual purchasing patterns and that pricing strategies respond to competitive dynamics immediately.

Inventory management systems powered by AI eliminate the guesswork that has traditionally plagued retail operations. These systems analyze historical patterns, seasonal trends and external market signals to optimize stock levels across all locations. 

According to Forrester, as shared by Forbes, there will be a major threat coming to retail in the coming year, specifically with specialty retailers:

“The vulnerability of specialty retail will reach a breaking point in 2026: We predict that three US chains will declare bankruptcy. High interest rates, persistent shifts toward online shopping, and aggressive competition from mass merchants and value retailers will push overleveraged companies into insolvency. Retailers carrying substantial debt loads face the greatest risk.”

AI could solve the issue, reducing the costs of carrying inventory and improving sales through reduced stockouts in fast-moving SKUs. Meanwhile, margin growth could reduce the potential debt and save those most at risk.

Revenue growth through intelligent forecasting

Advanced AI forecasting capabilities represent the cornerstone of successful 2026 retail strategies. These tools move beyond trend analysis to provide actionable intelligence that drives revenue growth across all business segments. Workforce transformation becomes essential as AI handles routine tasks, allowing human teams to focus on strategic initiatives and customer relationship building.

Costar predicts that “US retail net absorption will average 3.8 million square feet per quarter in 2026, highlighting muted expansion and the importance of maximizing existing stores, which is already below the 5-year average.” 

Retailers who implement complete AI strategies report measurable improvements: inventory turnover increases, customer satisfaction rises and operational costs decrease when AI-powered systems optimize decision-making processes.

Implementing AI-driven strategies for 2026 success

The transition to AI-driven retail operations requires careful planning and phased implementation. Successful retailers begin with high-value areas like demand forecasting and inventory optimization before expanding to more complex applications. Personalization strategies powered by AI create deeper customer connections while driving revenue growth.

Major industry research firms are also in line with this expectation, and personalization will begin to focus more on the agentic side of the AI conversation. According to Deloitte, “Estimates suggest that the global agentic AI market could reach $35 billion in 2030, up from a projected $8.5 billion in 2026. However, Deloitte predicts that if enterprises orchestrate agents better and more thoughtfully address the associated challenges and risks, this market projection could increase by up to 30%, or as high as $45 billion by 2030.” In retail, this represents millions of potential customers and transactions that all directly affect margin and the perception of hyper-personalization at scale. 

These strategies analyze individual shopping patterns, preferences and behaviors to deliver relevant experiences across all touchpoints. Clean, accurate data feeds enable precise predictions and reliable automation.

Measuring success and continuous improvement

The 2026 retail industry outlook emphasizes measurable results and continuous optimization. Retailers must establish clear metrics for AI performance and regularly assess the effectiveness of their implementations. Key performance indicators include forecast accuracy, inventory turnover rates, customer satisfaction scores and operational efficiency metrics. 

Retailers are also likely to invest in team training and change management to ensure AI implementations deliver intended results. Technology adoption succeeds when human teams understand and embrace new capabilities.

Transform your retail operations with AI-powered intelligence

The state of retail just after Black Friday 2025 points to one clear outcome–a demand for more. Reuters also noted an Adobe Analytics report showing that “US shoppers spent a record $11.8 billion online, up 9.1% from 2024 on the year's biggest shopping day.” The outlook for 2026 is better than the general outlook for 2025, following the introduction of the tariff conversation in Q1 with holiday spending growth supporting the narrative. 

The uniqueness of today’s retail environment presents clear opportunities for those who embrace AI-driven strategies. Artificial intelligence automation and data-driven insights provide the tools to build more resilient, revenue-generating retail operations. Retailers recognize that AI implementation represents strategic necessity rather than optional enhancement. E-commerce growth in certain segments complements store operations when integrated properly, but the core value remains in-store execution.

The competitive advantages created by AI-powered operations compound over time, creating sustainable differentiation in increasingly crowded markets. Explore how invent.ai enables retail growth through 2026 and beyond.